Market Outlook #259 (thirteenth March 2024)
Hi there and welcome to the 259th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Cosmos, Arweave, Vulcan Solid, enqAI, Banana Gun, League of Kingdoms and BuildAI. All of those had been readers requests this week, which is nice to see! For the newer, purely on-chain performs, I’ve centered solely on the USD pair, as there may be little or no price-history obtainable.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $72,931
Market Cap: $1.435trn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we will see that worth closed final week proper on that prior all-time excessive at $69k, on rising quantity. Since, buying and selling this week has seen Bitcoin enter worth discovery, pushing into $73.7k, under which it’s at present sat. Momentum indicators are very a lot bullish at current, with no indicators of exhaustion on this timeframe simply but. We now additionally haven’t any resistance ranges, given worth discovery, and so the primary main degree overhead of any concern might be $100k, being arguably probably the most important psychological quantity in its historical past alongside the 1.618 fib extension of the bear market. Little question we’ll see loads of volatility as we strategy that degree. We will additionally see from the weekly that worth has been in a parabolic advance for the reason that November 2022 backside, and most lately broke and closed above channel resistance at $53k, after which it has not regarded again, steepening the curve of the advance. If this parabola holds agency into the halving, we’re taking a look at $100k by Might, as absurd as that may have sounded 6 months in the past. Such is the power of the bid. Now, if we occur to seek out resistance within the subsequent few weeks and break that parabola, I’d then count on a interval of prolonged consolidation earlier than the subsequent leg greater begins, however let’s cross that bridge once we come to it. For now, so long as this week closes firmly by way of $69k, I feel the subsequent month is broadly up solely (with shallow however sharp wicks to deleverage the market).
Turning to the each day, we will see that there’s some momentum divergence forming right here as now we have emerged into worth discovery, however nothing that has been confirmed but – this might very nicely simply maintain grinding greater till momentum makes contemporary highs and invalidates any exhaustion. That stated, if we reject under $75k (the 1.618 extension of the present pattern) after which break and shut again inside $69k, now we have confluence between worth and momentum for a deeper pull-back, seemingly again in direction of $60k to retest that help degree earlier than one other breakout try. Assuming the pattern holds – which is my view right here – we must always see some minor rejection at $75k, a higher-low above $69k after which continuation in direction of $85k by the top of the month, invalidating the present perceived weak spot in RSI. Not a lot else so as to add right here at current.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $3992.50 (0.0546 BTC)
Market Cap: $479.451bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair continues to tear greater on progressively rising quantity week-on-week, having examined $3350 as help final week and bounced all the way in which into the weekly shut simply shy of $3900. Worth is now consolidating early this week round that $3950 resistance degree, and any acceptance by way of right here opens up continuation into the final degree earlier than all-time highs, at $4385. Nothing to recommend exhaustion right here on the upper timeframes both. If we drop into the each day, we will see just a little little bit of divergence on the latest push greater, however the pattern has been relentless and steep, providing solely sharp however transient wicks to purchase into. We obtained one other a type of a few days in the past, and except we now shut again under $3950 and switch it into resistance I’m anticipating this pattern to persist into $4385 earlier than the eventual breakout and worth discovery in a number of weeks time. Final cycle, it took 48 days for ETH to make a contemporary all-time excessive after Bitcoin, however provided that this cycle is progressing extra quickly than the final I’d not be stunned to see ETH at $5k in early April.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that the pair continues to cut round between the 200wMA and 360dMA, however worth is forming higher-lows for now. So long as the 360wMA at 0.053 holds, this construction will stay intact and I’d count on an upside breakout past 0.06 to observe shortly. If, nonetheless, we shut under 0.053, it’s seemingly we see the underside of this cluster swept into 0.049 once more to retest that low as help, with the potential for a wick under that if BTC/USD goes on a tear in direction of $100k earlier than a pointy reversal. Wanting on the each day, we will see this construction clearly, with the pair now winding tighter with decrease highs and higher-lows, seemingly culminating in some volatility both aspect of 0.053 and 0.058 within the subsequent week or two. I do assume the professional breakout and continuation greater is shut – simply uncertain at current whether or not we see a front-run of BTC consolidating after a run-up earlier than marking the underside, or whether or not the pair wicks under all of this help after which reverses sharply just like the January price-action (fake-out) showcased…
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $1.28 (1752 satoshis)
Market Cap: $11.907bn
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we will see that the pair has bullish weekly construction following final week’s agency shut by way of $1.10, establishing the uptrend and opening up continuation into the 2023 highs at $1.56. Weekly momentum can also be trying respectable right here for additional upside and this week has seen worth discover help at that prior resistance round $1.10 and bounce. In case you’re holding MATIC longs right here, I’d look to hedge round $1.40 and reopen publicity on a clear breakout by way of $1.60 for the remainder of the cycle, as there may be plenty of resistance up right here, so we may see some volatility. However if you happen to’re in spot, truthfully simply sitting in your arms and letting the market drag this by way of $1.56 is your greatest guess, with $2 as the first goal after that degree is cleared. I don’t assume MATIC might be an outperformer this cycle relative to different large-caps given its efficiency final cycle, however I’d not be stunned in any respect to see some minor worth discovery by way of $3 earlier than the cycle peaks. Turning to the each day, we will see some divergence in momentum right here, very like BTC and ETH, however given the proximity to main resistance right here I’d be extra involved, as defined prior. If we do reject off this $1.31-1.43 vary, I’d not be stunned to see $1.10 retested to mark out a higher-low within the broader pattern earlier than continuation by way of $1.56.
Taking a look at MATIC/BTC, we will see how worth swept the underside of the multi-year vary at 1717 satoshis into 1550 however closed again above the vary final week, now holding it as help. This might act as a classical spring formation, from which we’d see worth rally by way of 2100 satoshis over the subsequent couple of weeks, turning weekly construction bullish. If as an alternative we see lacklustre price-action this week and help fails as BTC strikes greater, I’d not need to personal Matic whatever the Greenback pair, given there may be zero help under and we might be seeing no indicators of power at a key historic degree. All to play for right here…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $14.08 (19,270 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.62bn
Ideas: Starting with the weekly timeframe for UNI/USD, we will see that worth rallied by way of $13 into $17.50 as resistance final week however rejected, nonetheless closing firmly above that vast historic degree that preceded capitulation in 2022. This could now act as help this week, and if that’s the case I’d count on one other crack at $17.50 to observe, which is just a minor resistance degree – above that, nonetheless, now we have the 38.2% fib and prior resistance round $20, adopted by the 50% fib and main historic degree at $25. I’d count on to see some form of native high between these ranges for the subsequent pullback and consolidation earlier than continuation greater. Wanting on the each day, we will see some minor divergence on momentum however construction is tremendous clear right here, with resistance turning into help as we push greater. So long as we don’t see the pair shut again under $13 this week, up solely continues. If we do shut under that degree, I’d look to purchase blood as near $10 because the market will give me, however I’d not count on a lot, to be trustworthy.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we will see that worth has turned weekly construction bullish and is now simply consolidating round prior resistance at 17.5k satoshis. Weekly momentum is trending greater and we’re very a lot trying prepared for extra upside within the coming weeks. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, we will see that the 360dMA is now appearing as help, as is prior resistance at 18.9k satoshis. If this space between 17.5k and 19k satoshis can maintain, I’d count on 35k satoshis to be the subsequent goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern. Solely under 17.5k would there be any purpose to get bearish given the implications for market construction. Nothing else so as to add right here – that is very clear.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $13.65 (18,710 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.318bn
Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we will see related construction to MATIC, with a higher-low in October 2023 above the Might 2022 capitulation low resulting in a shift to bullish weekly construction and the formation of an uptrend. This pattern was solidified final week with an in depth by way of trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. Weekly RSI can also be making contemporary highs however worth is now pushing up into the 200wMA at $14, simply shy of the multi-year resistance cluster between $14.60-16. This, very like MATIC, places you in a little bit of a pickle if you happen to’re levered closely and lengthy: there could possibly be a violent response off this overhead resistance, so most likely greatest to hedge up right here and reopen lengthy publicity by way of $16 if that’s the way you’re enjoying this, however if you happen to’re holding spot then sit in your arms till finally that degree breaks and ‘simple mode’ begins in direction of $20 as the subsequent resistance. Long run, I count on this one to push again into all-time highs, however unsure about huge intervals of worth discovery by way of $47.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we will see that the pair has been in a downtrend since September 2022, most lately breaking under help at 20k satoshis to seek out help at that historic 17.8k degree, which marked the underside in 2019. We do have some indicators of pattern exhaustion right here as now we have approached this degree and subsequently the potential for reversal, however no precise construction but to verify this. If we break and shut under 17.8k, I’d count on the all-time lows at 14.2k satoshis to be swept earlier than any significant reversal begins. Wanting on the each day for readability, I’ve marked out what we may even see if this 17.8k degree is to carry, which is a pointy sweep by way of the extent adopted by a reclaim and rally by way of 20.4k satoshis into 22.7k satoshis, then forming a higher-low again above that 20.4k satoshi space – if we see this, I’m on board for ATOM outperformance going ahead. Till then, not one I’m eager to carry with so many higher alternatives current.
Arweave:
AR/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
AR/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $37.97 (52,140 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.491bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at AR/USD, we will see that worth has been on a tear the previous few weeks, with final week bouncing off resistance turned help at $23 and pushing up so far as the 50% fib retracement of the bear market at $48 earlier than closing the week out at $41. We’ve no indicators of exhaustion on the weekly and loads of quantity on this most up-to-date push greater, however I’d not be stunned to see some consolidation right here above $34 and under $44 the remainder of this week. As quickly as we shut above $44 on the weekly, I feel we’re gonna see acceleration in direction of $72 as the subsequent main resistance degree earlier than contemporary all-time highs later this yr. Dropping into the each day, very like others cash we will see some exhaustion on the final push greater however nothing structurally to point a lot decrease costs are inbound . Slightly, I count on a higher-low to type above prior resistance at $34. If that degree does fail, I feel we commerce again in direction of $27.50, the place there may be loads of demand. To the upside, simply getting a clear break by way of final week’s highs will open up important upside, as aside from the 61.8% fib at $59, there actually isn’t a lot overhead resistance earlier than $72.
Turning to AR/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and worth has lately examined the 38.2% fib of the bar market at 68k satoshis, earlier than rejecting and now consolidating between reclaimed help at 50k and resistance round 65k satoshis. Once more, so long as that 50k degree now holds as help, I feel we simply proceed to push greater within the subsequent week or two in direction of trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the 50% fib at 85.6k satoshis. Wanting on the each day, the image is basically the identical because it was for the Greenback pair, with some momentum divergence right here however construction nonetheless trying strong for a higher-low above that 44-50k satoshi vary. Except we see 37.8k fail, each day construction remains to be bullish and the pattern is unbroken, so no purpose to overcomplicate this to be trustworthy…
Vulcan Solid:
PYR/USD
Each day:
PYR/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $9,47 (13,001 satoshis)
Market Cap: $226.443mn
Ideas: I’ll focus solely right here on the Greenback pair for Vulcan Solid.
Taking a look at PYR/USD, we will see that the pair emerged from a multi-year vary in November 2023, turning vary resistance into help at $5.50. Worth then rallied into $9.10, discovered resistance and retraced, retesting that vary resistance and forming a low above the 200dMA. Since, worth has continued the pattern greater, rallying by way of $9.10 final week into the 23.6% fib of the bear market round prior help at $10.78, the place now we have discovered some resistance. I’d count on to see some consolidation right here however for a higher-low to type above $8, resulting in a breakout by way of $10.78, with $16 as the subsequent goal past that. I’m nonetheless holding my spot bag from that vary and I’m on the lookout for the 38.2% fib to be tagged at $18.60 earlier than I start contemplating promoting partials and scaling out, with a view to carry some for worth discovery past $51 in a full-blown gaming mania in some unspecified time in the future on this cycle. If you’re on the sidelines seeking to get in, I’d be contemplating something near $8 as an excellent entry with invalidation at $5.50 and that $18 space as a primary goal.
enqAI:
ENQAI/USD
Each day:
Worth: $0.099 (136 satoshis)
Market Cap: $95.036mn
Ideas: As enqAI has solely been buying and selling for a number of months, we’ll look solely on the Greenback pair right here.
Taking a look at ENQAI/USD, we will see that worth initially fashioned resistance at $0.041 earlier than retracing into an all-time low at $0.0068 shortly after buying and selling started. This marked out the underside, from which the pair then consolidated for a month between a higher-low at $0.0097 and resistance at $0.023. This vary gave approach in February, starting ENQAI’s first bull cycle, with worth then making contemporary highs by way of $0.041 and now grinding greater inside a channel, forming an all-time excessive per week in the past round $0.15. We’ve since retraced to the underside of the channel and prior resistance at $0.084, appearing as help. That is the extent bulls need to see maintain, as a breakdown under this degree and thru the underside of the channel would open up the probability of a deeper retracement again in direction of that $0.041 degree to retest it as help earlier than continuation greater can start. If this space does maintain, nonetheless, we’re taking a look at $0.22 as the subsequent main goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern, someday late in March. If that is vertical accumulation earlier than a parabola/blow-off high begins, we must always see the highest of the channel give approach and switch into help, resulting in sharper rallies greater from there. On the finish of the day, we’re nonetheless pretty early within the AI crypto cycle and it’s seemingly these valuations turn out to be rather more ridiculous earlier than the cycle peaks, so holding this while its in worth discovery and simply sitting in your arms is smart to me.
Banana Gun:
BANANA/USD
Each day:
Worth: $35.99 (49,410 satoshis)
Market Cap: $86.186mnn
Ideas: Once more, as Banana Gun has solely been buying and selling for a number of months, let’s give attention to the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at BANANA/USD, we will see that early price-action in September noticed worth rally off help at $5.38 into resistance at $14, earlier than retracing to type a contemporary all-time low at $5 after which reclaiming $5.38 as help. Subsequently, the pair started its first bull cycle and rallied by way of $14 into $18.77 in December, earlier than retracing right into a higher-low at $8.18 in January. We’ve since been on a constant pattern greater, with a parabolic advance at present in play. Worth rallied into all-time highs a few days in the past at $39 and has been grinding greater inside a channel (much like ENQAI) since mid-February. I’d count on to see this pattern persist right here and the rallies get steeper, so long as we don’t break and shut under $30. If that degree holds, I feel we see continuation into $48 later this month, adopted by some form of blow-off high / parabola break someday in April, earlier than a interval of consolidation and correction earlier than what is going to seemingly be the ‘actual’ blow-off high every time BTC/USD has marked a high for this cycle. The choice state of affairs is that it simply continues to cling to this parabola and grind greater by way of April above $80 and past, however I’m leaning much less in direction of this view at current.
League of Kingdoms:
LOKA/USD
Each day:
LOKA/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.424 (583 satoshis)
Market Cap: $48.627mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LOKA look very related, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at LOKA/USD, we will see that the challenge launched inside the bear market and suffered a 97% drawdown from the $5.50 all-time excessive in April 2022, falling all the way in which into $0.17 in September 2023, which marked out the underside. Worth then reclaimed help at $0.19 and started turning each day construction bullish, rallying for months till it hit the 360dMA at $0.34 and rejected twice, retracing off that degree into the 200dMA to type a higher-low above $0.19 in February. From there, the pair has continued to rally, breaking by way of the 360dMA and turning it into help for the primary time in its historical past. We’ve pushed from that degree into prior help at $0.45, under which we at the moment are consolidating. I’d count on to see the formation of a higher-low above $0.34 now, seemingly nearer to $0.38, and worth to interrupt by way of $0.45 within the subsequent week or two, main an enormous vary of upside to be captured earlier than the subsequent main resistance. I might be seeking to purchase acceptance above $0.45 with a view to carry into the $1.46 degree – the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior help turned resistance.
BuildAI:
BUILD/USD
4H:
Worth: $0.51 (686 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.298mn
Ideas: As BuildAI has solely been buying and selling for a number of weeks, I’ve opted for the 4H chart right here of the Greenback pair for evaluation, given how little price-history is offered.
Taking a look at BUILD/USD, we will see related price-action to early ENQAI, with a rally into resistance at $0.45, adopted by the primary correction and consolidation above help at $0.15 (a 66% drawdown) after which the start of a bull cycle earlier this month off that help degree. Worth rallied by way of resistance at $0.31, turning it into help, then cleared $0.45 making contemporary all-time highs. Since, now we have continued to push greater into $0.85 because the all-time excessive, however there are some indicators of exhaustion right here at current. You will need to be aware of the truth that this can be a 4H chart, nonetheless, so exhaustion is anticipated after a few weeks of rallying greater. We’ve reclaimed resistance at $0.71 forming that lower-high, however at present worth is holding above prior highs turned help at $0.45. This might very nicely mark the underside right here as this cluster of help has been swept right into a key degree and worth has discovered demand, and if that’s the case we must always see a higher-low type above $0.50 this week resulting in continuation by way of $0.85 into worth discovery, with $1.25 as a goal past that. If, nonetheless, we’d like a bigger correction right here, $0.62 ought to now act as reclaimed resistance, forming one other decrease excessive, and worth ought to break under $0.45 from there, opening up a transfer into the earlier mid-range at $0.31 (which can also be the 78.6% fib retracement of this whole rally *and* across the identical drawdown because the earlier correction). If we get near $0.31, that may be an excellent entry for anybody seeking to maintain this for a cycle.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
