Market Outlook #260 (twenty first March 2024)
Hiya and welcome to the 260th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I might be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Fantom, Illuvium and LooksRare, a few which had been reader requests. It’s a barely shorter put up this week specializing in extra of the actions of the majors – again to usually scheduled programming from Monday.
As ever, you probably have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know through e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $65,405
Market Cap: $1.285trn
Ideas: Nicely, what a couple of days it has been…
If we start by trying on the weekly for BTC/USD, we are able to see that value closed final week proper under the earlier all-time excessive at $68.4k, having depraved into recent highs at $73.7k earlier than rejecting. Value has since additionally rejected off that weekly open and bought off in direction of $59.2k, bouncing above it this week and now consolidating proper round prior resistance turned assist at $64.9k, which is a big stage to carry: this was the April 2021 excessive and holding above it right here would look very very like the breakout, rejection and retest from the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive break. Additional, holding right here confirms that the present parabola stays intact, main to cost discovery in April and Might till we see the parabola break in some unspecified time in the future. On this timeframe, there actually isn’t rather a lot to be involved with simply but. We’ve a daily pull-back from an important stage on the chart after an enormous run-up that constructed up a whole lot of leverage available in the market. This has just about been eviscerated this previous couple of weeks and it’s now a case of holding these increased timeframe assist ranges and persevering with increased, in my opinion. Now, if we had been to lose the $59k stage and shut the weekly under it, that may begin to look extra regarding – the truth is, I might anticipate that to result in a parabola break shortly after and thus seemingly a for much longer interval of consolidation and chop earlier than continuation increased. One factor so as to add right here can be that there’s nothing but indicative of exhaustion on this timeframe: spot quantity is rising and momentum indicators are making higher-highs.
If we drop into the day by day, I’ve marked out three eventualities I’m contemplating right here. The primary is probably the most bullish, which is {that a} higher-low was marked out this week at $60.7k, above the $59.2k swing-low, with that bullish engulfing resulting in the formation of a higher-low within the subsequent few days above $61k, after which a breakout and reclaim of $69k, turning that into assist earlier than value discovery. The second state of affairs is that regardless of the bullish engulfing, value right this moment has rejected on the prior all-time highs and failed to make use of that momentum to interrupt above $68.9k, rejecting and turning decrease. This might mark out a lower-high inside this construction and result in a flush of this week’s low, inflicting a small liquidation cascade by means of $59.2k into $58k earlier than a pointy reversal begins from there again in direction of all-time highs in April, holding the parabola intact. The third state of affairs is that we proceed to fall from right here by means of $61k, kind one other lower-high under $65k after which break the parabola, closing under $58k – this extra bearish trajectory would result in an extended interval of consolidation and chop, with costs doubtlessly going as little as $48k earlier than marking out a backside in summer time after which starting a brand new parabola from there into value discovery and past. Truthfully, at current I’ve no certainty on any of those three, but when we begin to shut the day by day under $64.9k and switch that stage into resistance intra-week, I might anticipate the second state of affairs to develop into the almost definitely, liquidating a bunch of keen longs that jumped in after that bullish engulfing. I believe the longer consolidation is actually believable, however I’m at the moment leaning in direction of that being the least seemingly at current of the three. It’ll develop into extra clear if we do get under $61k and see no actual response from bulls…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $3442 (0.05266 BTC)
Market Cap: $413.035bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that value rejected at reclaimed resistance round $3950 after which closed final week simply above $3600, persevering with to unload this week under prior assist at $3580 into $3034, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating round $3440. There may be completely nothing bearish about this construction on the weekly, with rising quantity and momentum with no indicators of exhaustion. At current, this appears to be like like an ordinary pull-back following 6 weeks of rallying. Actually, we might pull again into $2721 and kind a higher-low there and it could nonetheless look fairly good on this timeframe. That stated, I don’t assume the market goes to be variety sufficient to reward you $2700, however it illustrate the purpose of ETH’s structural energy right here. If we drop into the day by day, I’ve marked out the 2 eventualities I’m taking a look at right here, which might be decided by BTC I might picture. The bearish state of affairs which does grant you $2700 and a interval of consolidation and re-accumulation is probably going if BTC/USD does break the parabola and lose $58k. The sharper restoration is extra possible right here, in my opinion, and we’ve already taken out that lengthy wick into $3284 and trapped breakdown shorts, in addition to liquidated a whole lot of longs, so I might be searching for the formation of a higher-low this week above $3284, following by continuation by means of $3580 subsequent week into recent yearly highs in early April, particularly given how ETH shrugged off the SEC headlines yesterday. Provided that we shut the day by day under $3284 do I believe this v-recovery doesn’t happen.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value bought off final week from the open into the shut proper above the 360wMA at 00.053 and this week discovered resistance at that weekly open, dumping into assist at 0.051 and bouncing, now consolidating between the 2 ranges. While this doesn’t look fairly, it additionally doesn’t look ugly – it simply appears to be like just like the worst chop of all time. We’ve one thing of a sweep of the latest swing-low into demand and value trying prefer it needs to carry 0.051 right here. If it could actually’t, and we shut the weekly under 0.051, then it appears to be like ugly, and we’ll seemingly want one other deep flush of 0.049 into 0.046 earlier than an actual backside kinds. If, nonetheless, assist holds right here, then we’re simply ready for that weekly lose by means of the trendline and for it to then maintain as assist the following week. Trying on the day by day, we are able to see that value broke under native trendline resistance this week on that dump into 0.051 and is now retesting 0.0533 as resistance. This would be the key take a look at over the subsequent day or two: reject right here and switch decrease and I believe it’s unlikely 0.051 is holding once more, and we’ll see the pair 5% decrease from there; if, nonetheless, we are able to break and shut again above that stage, I believe we take one other stab at that trendline.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $178.18 (0.002726 BTC)
Market Cap: $79.248bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value closed final week at recent yearly highs, simply shy of the September 2021 excessive at $213 and the 78.6% fib of the bear market. This week has seen a small pull-back off that space into the 61.8% fib at $170, with value wicking under it into $162 and discovering assist. I might see this pulling again so far as $140 earlier than marking out a backside, if the remainder of the market is transferring decrease, and the pair would nonetheless look unbelievable. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to see the parabolic advance from the December 2022 lows and the steepening of the rally this previous couple of weeks. Regardless of this, momentum indicators are displaying no indicators of exhaustion on the latest push increased into $212, and this at the moment simply appears to be like like a textbook reset earlier than continuation increased. If we do take out $162, I might anticipate a whole lot of demand to step in above $144 and mark out a backside, from which the pair begins the leg into all-time highs. This might truly even consolidate for a couple of weeks with out breaking that parabolic advance. So long as it holds, new all-time highs earlier than Might is almost definitely.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see that value could be very tightly holding to its parabolic curve right here, pushing off assist at 0.00207 final week into recent yearly highs, closing across the 61.8% fib of the bear market at 0.003. This week has seen a minor retracement off that stage, however nothing to recommend a break of the parabola simply but. We do have some indicators of potential exhaustion up right here, however nothing concrete at current: this might simply bounce subsequent week above 0.0026 and proceed increased into 0.00377 after that with the parabola intact. If it does maintain, we’re taking a look at recent highs in summer time. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that value swept the 0.0029 excessive and located resistance, with that stage now capping value. If we do see continuation decrease off this stage, I might be searching for that prior resistance at 0.00244 to behave as assist, main to a different breakout try past 0.003. Truthfully, nothing majorly bearish in any respect on this timeframe. Simply search for a higher-low formation and bid till the parabola breaks.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $1.07 (1632 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.004bn
Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that the pair has been marching forwards this previous few weeks, rallying by means of the 200wMA and turning it into assist at $0.55 earlier than breaking multi-year resistance at $0.64. This latter stage additionally turned assist as value pushed increased, with this previous week seeing the pair rally by means of a cluster of resistance under $1 into $1.14, the place it did reject. So long as we are able to shut the weekly above $1, I might anticipate continuation increased over the subsequent few weeks right here in direction of the 38.2% fib of the bear market and prior resistance between $1.51-1.66. Momentum indicators are additionally displaying no indicators of slowing down simply but. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that there was some divergence on the previous few pushes into resistance, and in basic bull market style these had been invalidated as value closed by means of $0.98 and turned it into assist, marking out a higher-high on RSI. From right here, I’m anticipating to see some extra consolidation between $0.91-1.1.14 over the subsequent week or so earlier than one other leg increased into $1.50 in early April.
Turning to FTM/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is confirmed as bullish with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows because the October 2023 backside formation. The previous couple of weeks have seen the pair battle at 1309 satoshis, wicking into the 200wMA at 1422 satoshis however rejecting and shutting under that stage twice. This previous week value has lastly broke by means of the resistance cluster, rallying into the subsequent main resistance at 1730 satoshis, with momentum additionally pointing increased. From right here, so long as we shut the week above 1400 satoshis, I might anticipate value to consolidate just a little after which run by means of 1900 satoshis into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and main assist turned resistance round 2420 satoshis, which is the place I might anticipate a neighborhood high to start forming. Except we now shut again inside 1308, the development appears to be like very robust. Dropping briefly into the day by day, we are able to see how some consolidation right into a breakout may look, however the primary factor to remove right here is that the 360dMA is now assist and there are not any indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here. I’m a Fantom bull for the foreseeable future.
Illuvium:
ILV/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ILV/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $130.03 (0.001989 BTC)
Market Cap: $822.166mn
Ideas: Starting with ILV/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has bottomed out and has shaped robust bullish construction, with a better excessive by means of $120 a few weeks in the past into $162. Value then consolidated and has since flipped $121 into assist, which is holding at current. I might now anticipate to see the subsequent leg increased start from right here by means of $162 into recent yearly highs,, with fairly actually no resistance between there and the 200% fib extension of the development round prior assist at $240-260. Invalidation can be a weekly shut again under that $108 stage that had capped value for over a 12 months. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how robust day by day construction is right here and, while we did have some divergence on the latest push increased, I imagine this has performed out on the dump earlier this week. We must always now see a higher-low kind above $120 and value to proceed by means of from there in direction of $260 within the subsequent few weeks.
Turning to ILV/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has spent the majority of its existence in a downtrend, however following the all-time low formation at 0.00124 in October 2023, the pair rallied increased, reclaiming assist at 0.0016 and turning weekly construction bullish. Value marked out a neighborhood increased at 0.0033, and has since retraced into 0.0016, which has held as reclaimed assist for one of the best a part of 2024. We at the moment are range-bound between that assist and prior assist turned resistance at 0.00224, and I might anticipate upside decision of this vary given the weekly construction. If we get a weekly shut by means of 0.00224, that could be a very clear sign to purchase spot with invalidation at 0.0015, seeking to maintain for a cycle, with a serious goal at 0.01.
LooksRare:
LOOKS/USD
Every day:
LOOKS/BTC
Every day:
Value: $0.131 (200 satoshis)
Market Cap: $130.877mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LooksRare look just about the identical given the relative lack of value historical past, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at LOOKS/USD, we are able to see how value has not too long ago rallied by means of the 200dMA and 360dMA that had been capping costs, with the latter by no means having been traded above prior besides a faux out in December 2023. We pushed increased and reclaimed assist at $0.11 earlier than value discovered resistance at a yearly excessive round $0.187. We’ve since retraced into $0.11, which is at the moment holding as assist, and the broader development is now pointing increased, with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows, in addition to the beginnings of a parabolic advance. I might anticipate to see the subsequent leg increased for LOOKS start from right here, taking the pair by means of $0.19 in direction of main resistance at $0.46, the place the two.618 extension of the present development can be sat. The craziest factor, nonetheless, is how far off the highs we’re – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market doesn’t even come into sight till $1.65, with the 38.2% fib at an important prior assist turned resistance round $2.60. That latter stage is the place I’m seeking to maintain this to, given the truth that LOOKS has by no means traded a bull cycle. I’ll look to exit most of my place round that stage both late this 12 months or early subsequent and maintain just a little for a possible moon-shot at all-time highs. For the short-term, so long as we maintain above $0.09 this appears to be like tremendous for increased costs…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Again to full size subsequent week!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions under, or e mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
