This can be a long-winded approach of claiming the market is rarely “mistaken.” It merely displays all accessible data. In the event you accurately disagree with the market, you may be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have alternate options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them beneath a regulatory settlement. In the event you consider the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is mistaken, you possibly can merely wager in opposition to her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Despite the fact that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win on your wager to repay – in the event you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’d be shopping for one thing value 55 cents for 40 cents immediately. Even in the event you may not be keen to try this, different market contributors will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (probably misinformed) whale, you’d count on the chances to say no as merchants incorporate this new data. Until in fact, the prediction markets are typically dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
